At least one forecaster sees 2026 auto sales falling from last year’s unexpected sprees, however fleeting the spikes turned out to be.
2025 in auto retail brought auto dealers better business than Cox Automotive and others foresaw. Cox forecasts a new year of less robust yet still healthy sales in what it nevertheless expects to be another volatile year with little for certain.
The auto service and technology provider projects about a 2% drop in retail new-vehicle deliveries to 13.1 million units and about a 1% decrease in used sales to 20.3 million.
“While we’re expecting most sales metrics to be lower compared to 2025, the expected declines are modest, and we think there will be good news on interest rates and tax returns that help the auto market in the first half of 2026,” said Interim Chief Economist Jeremy Robb in the forecast report.
Wealth Disparity
The 2026 picture as seen from the beginning shows a market riven by the country’s wealth divide. As was the case last year, the wealthy end of it is again poised to juice sales while those with lower incomes will continue to struggle amid lingering inflation, though Cox said price increases seem to be slowing.
“This divergence will accelerate trade-down behavior, making value perception critical across the market,” Robb’s report says.
Affordability struggles will be exacerbated by expected employment stagnation, Cox expects. On the other end of the wealth equation, stock market gains and interest rate and tax relief are projected to keep fueling auto consumption.
Wild Cards
Still, the wild card of the Trump administration’s active industrial policymaking makes 2026 impossible to gauge with much certainty, Cox acknowledged.
It foresees the review of the North America trade agreement that Trump’s first administration negotiated in 2020 as a key component of this year’s economic uncertainties, along with effects of fuel-economy and tax code changes, the pullback of electric-vehicle incentives, and trade tariffs imposed last year.
Another risk on the horizon is the question of Federal Reserve independence as current Chairman Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, posing potential for volatility that can curb consumer demand, Cox said.
